Innovation drives social and economic evolution. The diffusion of innovations is the process by which consumers adopt new products, services and technologies. In most cases, sales of new products are characterized by a finite life cycle, which follows a nonlinear path (birth, growth, maturity, and decline): In this context, traditional time series tools such as ARIMA models do not prove a satisfactory choice. Quantitative marketing has played a central role in the development of new product diffusion models. The statistical techniques involved in model estimation combine time series analysis with nonlinear regression techniques.

New product diffusion dynamics have inspired a flourishing field of research. So far, my research has been devoted to developing new diffusion models in order to account for the effect of knowledge of consumers, network externalities, dynamic market potentials, seasonality. The main areas of application for my work have been ICT, energy technologies, pharmaceutical drugs. 



Research topics:

Innovation diffusion models

Technological forecasting

Energy Transition modeling